Our Achievements in 2024 and Outlook for 2025

The year 2024 marked a period of significant global economic realignment and continued market fluctuations, yet it was also rich in opportunity. As transformative developments unfolded across sectors worldwide, BV Portföy adapted rapidly with our dynamic structure, further strengthening our achievements.

The year 2024 marked a period of significant global economic realignment and continued market fluctuations, yet it was also rich in opportunity. As transformative developments unfolded across sectors worldwide, BV Portföy adapted rapidly with our dynamic structure, further strengthening our achievements.

In this week’s report, we share a comprehensive review of our accomplishments throughout 2024, highlight major developments, and present our economic and sectoral expectations for 2025. Enjoy the read!

Message from the CEO: 2024 in Review

2024 was defined by market volatility, the rise of digitalization, and the increasing prominence of AI-powered investment tools in finance. Despite global uncertainties, BV Portföy delivered stable returns to our investors through robust risk management and innovative investment strategies.

We diversified our portfolio management strategies to meet rising demand for alternative assets and prioritized technology-driven investments. Closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators in Turkey and abroad, we continued to seize the best opportunities for our investors.

BV Portföy experienced significant growth in 2024. As of December 31, 2024, we managed 10 mutual funds totaling 1.4 billion TL and 5 venture capital investment funds (VCIFs) totaling 2.6 billion TL. Our total AUM tripled, reaching 4 billion TL.

2024 Market Overview: Global and Turkish Economies

Post-pandemic, central banks around the world adopted tighter monetary policies. In 2024, we observed early signs of inflation moderation in developed economies such as the U.S. and the EU. However, persistent core inflation kept interest rates high for most of the year, weighing on growth.

In the U.S., Donald Trump’s reelection and Republican dominance in Congress introduced trade-related uncertainties into 2025. U.S.-China trade tensions have become a critical factor affecting global investor sentiment.

China’s recovery lagged expectations due to high youth unemployment, real estate turbulence, and declining global demand. These issues pressured global trade volumes and impacted commodity-exporting countries reliant on Chinese demand.

Geopolitical instability, especially from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, sustained uncertainty in energy markets. Yet, record-breaking investments in renewable energy marked a structural shift in the global energy landscape.

For Turkey, 2024 was a year of monetary policy normalization. Following the 2023 elections, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) returned to orthodox policies. Incremental rate hikes helped rebuild investor confidence and stabilize the Turkish lira. The tight monetary stance appreciated the lira in real terms and curbed inflation.

As inflation declined in Q4, the CBRT cut interest rates at its year-end meeting—the first cut in 22 months. Year-end CPI fell to 44.4%, and the policy rate closed at 47.5%.

Economic growth slowed, with reduced domestic demand offset by strengthening external demand. This shift led to a significant contraction in the current account deficit, supported by reduced energy and gold imports, a lower trade gap, and record tourism revenues.

Credit rating upgrades from Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch were viewed as validation of the government’s macroeconomic strategies.

In summary, 2024 was a year of adjustment for both the global and Turkish economies. While global markets struggled with geopolitical instability, Turkey made meaningful progress toward economic stabilization by returning to orthodox policies.

Outlook for 2025

According to the IMF’s Global Economic Outlook report, global growth is expected to stabilize at 3.0%, with emerging markets leading the recovery.

The Trump administration is expected to prioritize economic momentum over inflation control. Proposed tariffs and trade restrictions could elevate stagflation risks, while persistent fiscal deficits and rising borrowing needs remain key vulnerabilities.

Following a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts during 2024, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot suggests only a limited 50-bps reduction in 2025.

China is anticipated to continue its fiscal support to prevent economic slowdown and deflation. A potential trade war with the U.S. would increase uncertainty, making it critical to monitor China’s growth trajectory closely.

In Europe, ongoing structural challenges in manufacturing and competition from China are expected to weigh on the economy. U.S. trade sanctions and tariffs may further pressure the region. The European Central Bank (ECB) projects average inflation at 2.1% in 2025.

For Turkey, inflation is expected to decline gradually in 2025. The CBRT’s target range is 16.0% (lower bound) to 26.0% (upper bound), with a midpoint of 21.0%. However, actual inflation is projected to come in higher, around 27.0% to 28.0%. The policy rate is expected to close the year between 30.0% and 32.0%.

We forecast 3.0% GDP growth for 2025, with domestic and external demand contributing positively. Although the current account deficit is expected to widen to $18 billion, we foresee no financing challenges.

We also anticipate that Turkey’s fiscal policy will begin to complement tight monetary policy as envisioned in the Medium-Term Program (OVP).

Our Fund Performance and 2024 Results
The year 2024 was a standout period for the U.S. equity markets, with the technology sector leading the way. The Nasdaq index recorded a 28.6% increase, marking one of its highest annual returns ever. The rapid advancement and deeper integration of artificial intelligence technologies into daily life reshaped business operations and led to a year of record-breaking profits for tech companies.

At BV Portföy, our technology-focused investment strategy enabled our funds to deliver strong performance throughout 2024.

BVV - Teknoloji Fonu:

Thanks to its investments in the microprocessor manufacturing ecosystem, the fund outperformed the market, particularly in the first half of the year. However, in the final quarter, some of the companies within the fund’s portfolio reported earnings below expectations, which negatively impacted its performance. Despite this, we anticipate that the adverse effects will diminish in 2025 and the fund will once again deliver returns above the benchmark. In 2024, the BVV Fund closed the year with a return of 30.7% and reached an asset size of 126 million TL.

BTE - Oyun ve Teknoloji Fonu:

Publishers and in-game advertising companies based in the U.S. and China outperformed major game developers in the gaming sector. The year 2024 was relatively quiet for large gaming companies in terms of new game launches. However, with the release of several blockbuster titles expected in 2025, we anticipate growth in both revenue and profitability for these companies, along with above-benchmark stock performance.

Notably, in the final quarter of the year, the announcement of economic support packages in China and the entry of U.S. gaming companies into the Chinese market via local platforms had a positive impact on the stock performance of China-based gaming firms. Meanwhile, new game launches from Japanese gaming companies led to increased profits, pushing their share prices to all-time highs.

As a result of these developments, we expect global gaming companies to perform strongly in 2025. In 2024, the BTE Fund achieved a 37% return, ending the year with an asset size of 292 million TL.

RUT - Robotik ve Uzay Teknolojileri Fonu:

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections, rising geopolitical tensions led to increased defense spending across European Union countries. Many companies operating in the space technologies sector are also heavily involved in defense, which contributed to the strong, above-benchmark performance of funds aligned with this theme by the end of 2024.

Meanwhile, advancements in artificial intelligence have enhanced the efficiency of robotic technologies used in industrial production, boosting the profitability of companies developing these innovations.

The RUT Fund was launched in July 2024 and achieved a 17.6% return within its first six months of operation. By year-end, it had reached an asset size of 37 million TL.

SPR - Spor Endüstrisi Değişken Fonu:

Launched in 2024, the Sports Fund is Turkey’s first sports-themed investment fund, offering investors the opportunity to invest in companies that sponsor both local and global sports and sporting events. Through the SPR Fund, investors can gain exposure to a diverse range of assets—from football clubs to motorsports teams and organizations, from sports analytics broadcasters to some of the world’s leading sportswear brands.

Given that the sports industry operates under dynamics distinct from other sectors of the economy, the fund’s performance tends to move independently from many traditional investment instruments. As such, the SPR Fund adds valuable diversification to investor portfolios.

The SPR Fund began operations in July 2024 and achieved a 6.1% return over six months, reaching an asset size of 53 million TL by year-end.

BHI - Algoritmik Stratejiler Hisse Senedi Serbest Fonu

The fund utilizes a variety of proprietary algorithms to invest in selected stocks within the BIST 100 index, based on specific criteria. These positions are actively managed using momentum and trend-following algorithms.

Despite the high volatility and the relatively narrow trading range of the BIST 100 index in 2024, the BHI Fundoutperformed the benchmark over the course of the year. It is particularly well-suited for investors seeking to implement a “trend-following” strategy within the BIST index.

BVZ - İstatistiksel Arbitraj Serbest Fonu 

BVZ is a statistical arbitrage hedge fund managed using high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms. It tracks momentum in BIST 100 index stocks, taking positions within milliseconds, and simultaneously hedges these positions by taking offsetting positions in the VIOP (Turkish Futures and Options Market). The fund maintains a risk profile comparable to that of money market funds.

In 2024, the BVZ Fund delivered a 70.84% return, with its assets under management reaching 590 million TL. This performance exceeded the average return of money market funds—which stood at approximately 61%—by 10 percentage points.

BIS - Birinci Serbest Fon

The BIS Fund employs a management strategy similar to that of the BVZ Fund, with the primary objective of delivering returns in USD terms for its investors. The fund achieves this by taking both long and short positions in gold, U.S. dollars, and equities, aiming to generate USD-based absolute returns. This strategy makes the fund particularly suitable for investors who typically allocate their capital to U.S. dollar-denominated deposits.

As of the end of 2024, the BIS Fund reached an asset size of 98 million TL.

You can access a detailed analysis and the most recent data on the performance of all our Venture Capital Investment Funds (VCIFs) and Pre-IPO Venture Capital Funds through this report. It includes comprehensive insights into portfolio returns, the impact of market conditions, and strategic evaluations.

Outlook for 2025: A Message from the CEO

Dear Investors and Business Partners,

At BV Portföy, while we anticipate ongoing economic uncertainty in global markets in 2025, we firmly believe that the acceleration of digital transformation and the growing adoption of AI-powered financial solutions will present new opportunities within our investment strategies.

This year, we aim to further enhance our AI-driven analytical capabilities, strengthening our data-centric investment decisions. We will continue investing in high-growth sectors such as technology, biotechnology, fintech, and sustainable energy—industries that represent the business models of the future. As digitalization and financial technologies advance, we remain committed to integrating innovative solutions into our investment processes and making a meaningful difference.

Supporting the entrepreneurship ecosystem and enabling the realization of innovative ideas will remain at the core of our priorities. As a trusted partner for entrepreneurs, we are committed not only to their early-stage development but also to providing the capital they need for growth and scalability, ensuring sustainable success. For us, 2025 will also be a year of building deeper relationships with our investors and expanding the reach of the BV Portföy brand to wider audiences. With your continued trust and support, we are confident in advancing our growth journey with strong momentum.

We hope 2025 will be a year full of new opportunities for all of us.

Despite the economic uncertainties and market volatility, 2024 was a year of great accomplishments. At BV Portföy, we adapted to evolving market conditions, maintained our innovative strategies, and continued to provide the highest quality service to our clients.

In 2025, our goals remain focused on growth and sustainable success. With a keen awareness of global and local economic developments, we aim to further enhance our fund performance and deliver maximum value to our investors.

This year, we also moved into a new office space to support our continued growth and foster a more productive work environment. This move reflects more than just a change in location—it represents our commitment to creating an innovative, collaborative, and inspiring workspace for our team. Our new office will empower us to take bold steps toward the future and foster even stronger partnerships with our collaborators and entrepreneurs. You can find the address and directions to our new location on our website and social media channels. We would be delighted to welcome you in our new space!

Wishing you a successful year ahead!

To properly diversify your portfolio, learn more about BV Portföy’s investment funds, and determine the most suitable ones for your needs, feel free to reach out to us.

The most effective way to manage your investments confidently, diversify your portfolio, and minimize risk is through the expertise of BV Portföy.