From 2025 to 2026: The Dynamics of a New Era

In recent years, the global economy and financial markets have entered a phase of seeking a new equilibrium amid rising uncertainties, shifting monetary policies, and accelerating structural transformations.

In recent years, the global economy and financial markets have entered a phase of seeking a new equilibrium amid rising uncertainties, shifting monetary policies, and accelerating structural transformations. During this period, investment decisions have become increasingly selective, while risk management, diversification, and a long-term perspective have gained greater importance than ever before. The year 2025 stood out as a turning point in which these dynamics became more pronounced—both globally and in Türkiye—reshaping investor behavior and market structures.

As we approach 2026, we are entering a period where economic and financial balances are being redefined, and where opportunities and risks are becoming more intertwined. In this article, we take a holistic view of the key developments and achievements of 2025, while also evaluating the global and local economic outlook, investment themes, and key dynamics shaping 2026. Our objective is not only to provide a summary of the past year, but also to offer our investors a well-grounded perspective for the period ahead. We wish you an enjoyable read.

Message from the CEO: 2025 Review - Outlook for 2026

The year 2025 was marked by an acceleration in global economic transformation, elevated uncertainty across both local and international markets, and a period in which long-term vision and strategic positioning proved decisive. In an environment where tight monetary policies persisted and financial conditions became more restrictive, BV Portföy focused not only on managing existing risks, but also on accurately interpreting shifting economic cycles and creating sustainable value for our investors. Thanks to our disciplined portfolio management approach, diversified product range, and active risk management, we concluded 2025 on a strong foundation in terms of both performance and growth.

As we move toward 2026, we observe the beginning of a new phase in which economic and financial balances are being redefined. While a gradual easing of monetary policies is coming onto the global agenda, growth is expected to become more balanced and capital flows more selective. In this environment, we believe that flexibility, diversification, and a thematic investment approach will outperform one-directional strategies. With interest rates entering a downward trajectory, we anticipate broader investor participation in capital market instruments. At the same time, alternative investments and active management are expected to play an increasingly significant role in portfolios.

BV Portföy’s vision for 2026 is shaped by global growth themes centered on technology, artificial intelligence, and scalable business models, alongside improving macroeconomic fundamentals in Türkiye driven by the disinflation process. We expect investors to increasingly prioritize portfolios that offer strong risk management, transparency, and long-term value creation, rather than focusing solely on short-term returns. In line with this vision, we remain committed to developing innovative products, strengthening our active portfolio management capabilities, and further deepening the trust-based relationships we have built with our investors.

Looking ahead, we believe that the investment landscape will increasingly reward approaches that effectively manage uncertainty, adapt swiftly to changing conditions, and prioritize long-term value creation. At BV Portföy, we continue to act with a perspective that focuses not only on today’s conditions but also on tomorrow’s opportunities. In 2026 and beyond, our disciplined portfolio management philosophy, strong research infrastructure, and innovative product approach will remain at the core of our mission to deliver sustainable and lasting value for our investors.

2025 Market Review: Global and Türkiye Economy

In Türkiye, 2025 was characterized by a strong focus on the disinflation process and the more tangible effects of tight monetary policy. While restrictive financial conditions were maintained in the first part of the year, a decline in inflation paved the way for limited easing steps toward year-end. Demand for real returns on Turkish lira–denominated assets increased, while investor interest in foreign currency–based instruments and alternative return-oriented funds remained robust. Although economic activity showed signs of stabilization, expectation management and financial stability remained key themes throughout the year.

Globally, 2025 marked a period in which markets approached the end of the high-interest-rate cycle and cautiously entered a phase of monetary easing. Inflation continued to trend downward in the United States and Europe, prompting central banks to implement gradual, data-dependent rate cuts. Global growth remained subdued, while geopolitical risks, trade policies, and tight financial conditions continued to shape market dynamics. During this period, technology-heavy equity indices in the U.S. outperformed, driven by artificial intelligence themes and highly profitable large-cap companies. Precious metals such as gold and silver stood out as portfolio diversifiers amid interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Overall, investors adopted a selective and cautious risk-taking approach, balancing expectations around interest rate trajectories against economic slowdown risks.

Fon Performanslarımız ve 2025 Sonuçları

For BV Portföy, 2025 was a year marked by an expanded product offering and strong asset growth.

• During 2025, BV Portföy launched six mutual funds, designed to meet the needs of investors with varying risk–return profiles.
• Five venture capital investment funds were established, supporting technology-driven, early-stage, and growth-oriented investments.
• Total assets under management (AUM) exceeded TRY 10 billion.
• The number of investors surpassed 9,000, reflecting growing interest in our products and performance.
• Our total number of funds reached 26, supported by balanced and sustainable growth across both TRY- and FX-denominated strategies.

The BVF Money Market Fund attracted strong investor interest due to its low-risk profile, same-day liquidity, and above-average performance relative to peers. The BIS – BV Portföy First Free Fund delivered an annual return of 10% in USD terms, despite accepting investments in TRY, standing out for investors seeking FX-based returns. The BVZ Fund achieved a 52% annual return in TRY, while BVI and BVH Funds demonstrated stable medium- and long-term performance.

In a year where technology and growth themes dominated global markets, our funds aligned with these trends delivered strong USD-based returns. RUT and BTE Funds generated annual USD returns of 29% and 27%, respectively, while BVV Fund achieved over 23% USD return, highlighting the importance of exposure to technology-focused global indices.

These strong results were also reflected in investor participation. The RUT Fund reached 3,383 investors, while the BV1 Fund, launched in 2025, attracted 1,490 investors in a short period. The performance of technology companies driven by artificial intelligence, high profitability, and scalable business models supported returns and fueled investor demand.

Within our venture capital investment funds, 2025 focused on enhancing value creation across existing portfolio companies, evaluating selective new investment opportunities, and suggesting a more structured investor communication framework. Close monitoring of operational and financial performance, alongside active engagement with high-growth sectors, contributed to maintaining a balanced risk–return profile and reinforcing our long-term value creation objectives.

2026 Market Outlook: Global and Turkish Economy

Global Outlook: Global economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate but subdued. The IMF forecasts global growth at approximately 3.1% in 2026. Following the rate cuts initiated in 2025, the pace and sustainability of monetary easing will remain a central topic. While declining interest rates in the U.S. and Europe may support growth, geopolitical risks, rising public debt, and uncertainty surrounding trade policies continue to pose significant risks. In this environment, technology stocks and growth themes are expected to be priced selectively, while safe-haven assets such as gold are likely to maintain their role as portfolio stabilizers.

Türkiye Outlook : For Türkiye, 2026 is expected to be shaped by the continuation of the disinflation process and a more balanced growth trajectory. The OECD projects economic growth of approximately 3.4% in 2026, supported by a gradual recovery in domestic demand. Inflation dynamics, the Central Bank’s expectation management, financial conditions, and exchange rate pass-through effects will remain critical. Maintaining fiscal discipline and attracting sustainable capital inflows could present significant opportunities for Turkish assets. In a declining interest rate environment, equities, bonds, and eurobonds are expected to gain prominence, while diminishing real returns on deposits may drive greater investor interest toward capital market instruments.

Conclusion and Looking Ahead

As economic and financial conditions remain volatile, sound strategy, disciplined portfolio management, and a long-term investment horizon will continue to be key determinants of success.

At BV Portföy, we remain committed to preparing our investors not only for today’s market conditions but also for the opportunities of tomorrow. Supported by our strong research capabilities and active management approach, we aim to continue creating sustainable and lasting value throughout 2026 and beyond.

Managing your investments with confidence, diversifying your portfolio, and minimizing risk are best achieved through the expertise of BV Portföy.